Is Minneapolis on the brink? A new documentary, 'A Precarious State,' paints a stark picture, focusing on crime rates, struggling schools, and the rise of socialist influence. But is it a fair portrayal, or a politically charged message just weeks before a crucial city election?
Former KARE-11 anchor Rick Kupchella's film aims a critical lens at Minneapolis, examining issues from taxes and commercial real estate to migration patterns and the overall business climate. The documentary specifically targets several City Council members, raising questions about their policies and impact on the city.
With over 300,000 views on YouTube and statewide airings on ABC affiliates as a paid advertisement, 'A Precarious State' has certainly captured attention. It's billed as a public education campaign, but some question its timing and potential influence on the upcoming city elections. Kupchella himself denies any intentional electioneering, stating it was crucial to release the film while the issues were still relevant. But here's where it gets controversial... the documentary conspicuously avoids any mention of Mayor Jacob Frey, who is currently seeking his third term.
Interestingly, one woman who appeared in the film claimed she agreed to participate under the impression it would positively portray Frey. This raises questions about the film's overall objectivity and intended message. Kupchella has remained tight-lipped about the film's financial backers, only revealing it was produced with the support of "business and community leaders" who prefer to remain anonymous due to the current polarized political environment. He maintains the film uncovers a vitally important story.
Let's delve into the key areas highlighted in 'A Precarious State':
Crime Statistics and Police Funding:
The film uses graphic footage of a 2024 gun battle to illustrate a narrative of gang control and "open warfare" in Minneapolis. To support this, it cites increases in homicides, motor vehicle theft, and vandalism since 2019. But this is the part most people miss… the documentary omits data showing a 19% decrease in burglaries during the same period. While it's undeniable that crime surged in Minneapolis following the pandemic, and some categories remain higher than pre-pandemic levels, progress has been made in areas like motor vehicle theft and carjacking, which have decreased since 2023 and 2022, respectively.
Kupchella defends his approach, arguing that comparing current crime stats to a period when the "city was on fire" is misleading. He also claims his focus was on serious crime and offenses that could lead to further criminal activity. The film further alleges that the City Council is actively cutting the police budget. While a budget reduction did occur in 2021, police spending has actually increased since then, from $170 million to a budgeted $234 million today.
Democratic Socialists and City Politics:
A central theme of the documentary is the perceived negative influence of politicians aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) on Minneapolis. City Council Member Robin Wonsley is portrayed as the leader of the council's progressive wing, espousing radical ideas. Carol Becker, a writer known for criticizing the city's progressive movement, states that Wonsley "doesn't believe in capitalism; she wants the government to own it all." But is this a fair assessment?
Becker's assertion that Wonsley is the "leader" of the DSA-aligned bloc is likely to raise eyebrows among City Hall observers. While Wonsley is certainly vocal, Council Vice President Aisha Chughtai, who also chairs the powerful Budget Committee, holds arguably more authority as a DSA member. Wonsley herself was not interviewed for the film, nor were any of her supporters. Kupchella claims he read her campaign website but chose not to summarize it in the documentary.
Wonsley claims Kupchella never explicitly requested an interview for a documentary focused on City Hall policies, stating his initial email described a "public education campaign" about the DSA's rise. She directed him to the Twin Cities DSA for more information. Kupchella instead focused on the national Democratic Socialists of America's platform, which calls for freeing all incarcerated people, abolishing prisons, ending misdemeanor offenses, and cutting funding for prosecutors. Wonsley dismissed some of these claims as "comical," questioning what incarcerated individuals she had supposedly freed. City Council Member Jason Chavez clarified that the DSA is a movement prioritizing local autonomy and democratic control, and that he has never advocated for firing prosecutors or freeing all prisoners. Kupchella, however, insists that the national DSA's platform is significant, calling it the "mothership" of the organization Wonsley is aligned with. This raises the controversial question: to what extent should local politicians be judged by the platforms of national organizations they affiliate with?
Student Test Scores:
'A Precarious State' also examines Minnesota student test scores, claiming that a majority of students are failing science, reading, and math. However, this is a misinterpretation of how the state assessment works, according to Elsa Mundt, an educational data analyst. The reading and math assessments are adaptive, adjusting in difficulty to determine a student's capabilities, rather than assigning a pass or fail grade. The goal is to describe what students can do, rather than labeling them as failing. Even after this explanation, Kupchella stood by his assertion that a large percentage of Minnesota students are failing science. It's important to note that recent test results showed that the science scores reflect new standards that schools are just beginning to implement.
Migration and Taxes:
The documentary highlights data showing people moving out of Minnesota between 2022 and 2024, attributing this outward migration to the state's income tax. Former Republican state legislator Pat Garofalo claims this is an unprecedented "massive amount of migration." While it's true that Minnesota has consistently seen more people moving out than moving in since at least 2006, this trend predates recent tax policies. State demographer Susan Brower emphasizes that migration is driven by a variety of factors, not solely public policies or quality of life. Minnesota's overall population has continued to grow due to new births and international arrivals, although at a slower rate than in the past due to declining birth rates.
Real Estate and Downtown Development:
The film laments the decline of downtown Minneapolis, citing its distressed commercial real estate market. According to CRED-iQ.com, Minneapolis ranks among the most distressed in the nation based on properties behind on payments or requiring new financing. While this is accurate, the documentary fails to acknowledge areas of strength in the local real estate market. The vacancy rate for the industrial sector is significantly lower than the national average, and home buying remains strong, particularly in Minneapolis, where sale price gains have outpaced the broader metro. Home values in the metro area also posted the ninth-biggest gain in the nation this summer. The film also claims that Minneapolis is dead last for housing starts, which Nick Erickson of Housing First Minnesota attributes to the high cost of building homes and local government policies that have stalled or blocked the construction of starter homes.
Commercial real estate investor Erin Fitzgerald expresses her frustration with the business environment in Minneapolis, finding better deals in other cities due to local government incentives. She has lobbied for similar tax credits in Minnesota, praising Mayor Frey's support but criticizing the City Council's DSA influence. Despite her concerns, Fitzgerald believes the documentary is getting important messages out, but that it paints an unfairly negative picture of Minneapolis and Mayor Frey.
'A Precarious State' presents a potentially alarming view of Minneapolis. But how much of it is objective truth, and how much is politically motivated narrative? Is Minneapolis truly in a precarious state, or is this an exaggeration designed to influence voters? What responsibility do filmmakers have to present balanced perspectives, especially when releasing content close to elections? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
